Tuesday, 21 October 2008
I still don't care what you say...
In a previous post, Tom took at shot at me about my concerns about climate change.
Is it real, or is it natural variation?
Well, the above graph displays Melbourne's rainfall against its expected average for 2008.
So far this month, two thirds through, we have received 9.0 mm (expected average = 66.5 mm).
Not looking good for October, Tom.
You can see that we have had eight months below average and only one above this year. If you say that you can reasonably expect half the readings to be above average and half to be below, then there is a binomial probability of 1.8% of this occuring.
But it you go back to the start of the century, there have been only 27 months with above average rainfall. That's out of 105 months. The probability of this occurring is less than 0.00005%
If it was a coin toss competition you would be starting to suspect foul play.