Tuesday, 21 October 2008

I still don't care what you say...

(Click to enlarge)

In a previous post, Tom took at shot at me about my concerns about climate change.

Is it real, or is it natural variation?

Well, the above graph displays Melbourne's rainfall against its expected average for 2008.

So far this month, two thirds through, we have received 9.0 mm (expected average = 66.5 mm).
Not looking good for October, Tom.

You can see that we have had eight months below average and only one above this year. If you say that you can reasonably expect half the readings to be above average and half to be below, then there is a binomial probability of 1.8% of this occuring.

But it you go back to the start of the century, there have been only 27 months with above average rainfall. That's out of 105 months. The probability of this occurring is less than 0.00005%

If it was a coin toss competition you would be starting to suspect foul play.


  1. Maybe you are setting your averages too high.

  2. He he..wonder why we don't seem to have this problem. Last time I listen to the radio news, some part of the country was flooded.

  3. Whilst there is no doubt in my mind that climate change is occuring, if rainfall is anything to go by, even climate for that matter, here in NQ if one looks at our weather pattern over the last 20 years ( i have been recording rainfall here and temps ) a distinct pattern in evident.

  4. Lets not forget that 100 or even 50 years ago we were not all that good at taking accurate, consistent measurements...and secondly, that 100 years in the global climate is mearly a nanosecond. This makes any "patterns" over such a short period meaningless.

    While there is some vague reason to consider man made pollution, this is not the best place to look for it.

    Hope things are going well for you this spring. :)

  5. Dang.
    Ideally, mankind would recognize his own hand in this wanton destruction, but, I see you have as many hold-outs tere as we have here, eh?

    "IF man has anything to do with the trend?"

    "....some vague reason...."

    Here, folks are saying that there is no real proof of man's hand on the climate or the trends now sprouting about the planet. The word of "not enough data" on weather changes and such blister our ears and scorch our souls....

    Sure, maybe a bit dramatic about it.
    But, what do you expect? It fares better to be dramatic of our wretched handling of the resources of earth than to spill a stupid grin, joke, and a shrug of the shoulders to a 'possible' cock-up by the world's stupidest creatures.

    It makes me wonder if, possibly, some dinosaurs actually poo-pooed other dinosaurs for being so pessimistic about the future.

    Lee, I can tell you without any research, and so, Mankind is bringing our planet to a close.
    Now...where can I find viable data?

    Hey. The weather is what's changing.
    All I have to do is find mankind's footprints.

    Wonder how long that'll take me, anyway?


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